Canadian Inflation Slows in January Assuring a Rate Pause At March 8 BoC Meeting.
further decline in inflation in january affirms bank of canada pause in march
Canadian inflation decelerated meaningfully in January despite the continued strength in the economy. Labour markets remain very tight, and retail sales continue strong. Nevertheless, the Bank of Canada’s jumbo rate hikes over the past eleven months have tempered inflation from a June ’22 peak of 8.1% y/y to 5.9% in January.

The 3-month average growth in the Bank of Canada’s preferred median and trim inflation measures – designed to look through volatility in individual product prices to better gauge underlying price pressures – are running at around 3.5% on a three-month annualized basis. That’s still above the BoC’s 2% inflation target but is well below peak levels last year.

Prices for cellular services and passenger vehicles contributed to the deceleration in the all-items CPI. However, mortgage interest costs and food prices continue to rise.

Last month, inflation excluding food and energy, rose 4.9% y/y. Prices excluding mortgage interest costs rose 5.4%. In both cases, year-over-year price growth was slower than in December. Some of the decline in inflation was due to base-year effects. In January 2022, mounting tensions amid the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, coupled with supply chain disruptions and higher housing prices, put upward pressure on prices.

Monthly, the CPI rose 0.5% in January 2023, following a 0.6% decline in December. Higher gasoline prices contributed the most to the month-over-month increase, followed by a rise in mortgage interest costs and meat prices.

Another critical factor in today’s data is that inflation in services eased to 5.3% from 5.6%.

Food prices, however, remain elevated in January (+10.4%) compared to 10.1% in December. Grocery price acceleration in January was partly driven by year-over-year growth in meat prices (+7.3%), resulting from the most significant month-over-month increase since June 2004. Food purchased from restaurants also rose faster, rising 8.2% in January following a 7.7% increase in December.

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada must feel pretty good about today’s inflation numbers. They confirm the wisdom of their announced pause in rate hikes at the January meeting. Despite continued strength in the labour market and January retail sales, headline and core inflation measures have declined again, with a five handle now on the headline rate. That is still a long way to the 3.0% inflation forecast by the end of this year, but it is moving in the right direction.

There will be no BoC action when they meet again on March 8. Their press release will be scrutinized for a hawkish versus dovish tone. Regardless of upcoming data, there is virtually no chance of any rate cuts this year.

Published by Sherry Cooper

A second mortgage is a mortgage that is taken out against a property that already has a mortgage on it. Generally people take out second mortgages to satisfy short-term cash or liquidity requirements, have an investment opportunity or to pay off higher-interest debts (such as credit cards and student loans) that a second mortgage might offer.

If you are considering a second mortgage for any reason, here are a few key points to keep in mind:

Second Mortgages and Home Equity: Your second mortgage and what you can qualify for hinges on the equity that you have built up in your home. Second mortgages allow you to access between 80 and 95 percent of your home equity, depending on your qualifications.

For example, if you seeking 95% Loan-to-Value loan (“LTV”):

House Value = $850,000
95% LTV (maximum mortgage amount) $807,500
less: First Mortgage ($550,000)
Amount Available Through Second Mortgage $257,500

Second Mortgages and Interest Rates: When it comes to a second mortgage, these are typically higher risk loans for lenders. As a result, most second mortgages will have a higher interest rate than a typical home loan. There is also the option of working with alternative and private lenders depending on your situation and financial standing.

Second Mortgage Payments: One advantage when it comes to a second mortgage is that they have attractive payment factors. For instance, you can opt for interest-only payments, or you can select to pay the interest plus the principal loan amount. Work with your mortgage broker to discuss options and what would work best for your situation.

Second Mortgage Additional Fees: A second mortgage often comes with additional fees that you should be aware of before going into the transaction. These fees can vary widely but often are a percentage of the mortgage. Other fees to consider include appraisal fees, legal fees to set up the second mortgage and any lender or broker administration fees (particularly with alternative or private lenders).

Second mortgages are a great option for many homeowners and, in some cases, may be a better solution than a refinance or a Home Equity Loan (HELOC). If you are interested in learning more or want to find out if a second mortgage is right for you, don’t hesitate to reach out to me today.

The current economic landscape can be challenging for young Canadians to navigate as they face great uncertainty with higher interest rates and inflation. It can be frustrating as they are just starting to build their career, considering buying a home or starting a family. If you are a parent, you may be thinking about how you can help your child during this period. The CHIP Reverse Mortgage by HomeEquity Bank is a sound financial solution that can help you support your loved ones by providing a tax-free gift.

The Gift of Early Inheritance

As a parent, you may want to provide an early inheritance to see your adult children use the funds to improve their lives in a time of need. By giving an early inheritance, you can avoid probate fees (estate administration tax) and save money by bringing you to a lower tax bracket*. With an early inheritance, your children can pay for their wedding, start a business, pay off student loans, make a down payment on their home, and much more. Speak to your tax specialist for more details.

How the CHIP Reverse Mortgage Works

You may have heard of people using a home equity line of credit (HELOC) or liquidating their investments to gift an early inheritance. However, there are disadvantages associated with loss of earnings or tax payable when it is time to sell their investments. The CHIP Reverse Mortgage by HomeEquity Bank allows you to unlock up to 55% of the equity in your home without any of these challenges. With the CHIP Reverse Mortgage, your investments remain intact, and no monthly mortgage payments are required. Therefore, your income is not affected, and best of all, the money you get from the CHIP Reverse Mortgage is tax-free!