The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%.

The major shift in direction of US trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations. Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally. Instead, the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents two scenarios that explore different paths for US trade policy. In the first scenario, uncertainty is high but tariffs are limited in scope. Canadian growth weakens temporarily and inflation remains around the 2% target. In the second scenario, a protracted trade war causes Canada’s economy to fall into recession this year and inflation rises temporarily above 3% next year. Many other trade policy scenarios are possible. There is also an unusual degree of uncertainty about the economic outcomes within any scenario, since the magnitude and speed of the shift in US trade policy are unprecedented.

Global economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation has been easing towards central bank targets. However, tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook. In the United States, the economy is showing signs of slowing amid rising policy uncertainty and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, while inflation expectations have risen. In the euro area, growth has been modest in early 2025, with continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. China’s economy was strong at the end of 2024 but more recent data shows it slowing modestly.

Financial markets have been roiled by serial tariff announcements, postponements and continued threats of escalation. This extreme market volatility is adding to uncertainty. Oil prices have declined substantially since January, mainly reflecting weaker prospects for global growth. Canada’s exchange rate has recently appreciated as a result of broad US dollar weakness.

In Canada, the economy is slowing as tariff announcements and uncertainty pull down consumer and business confidence. Consumption, residential investment and business spending all look to have weakened in the first quarter. Trade tensions are also disrupting recovery in the labour market. Employment declined in March and businesses are reporting plans to slow their hiring. Wage growth continues to show signs of moderation.

Inflation was 2.3% in March, lower than in February but still higher than 1.8% at the time of the January MPR. The higher inflation in the last couple of months reflects some rebound in goods price inflation and the end of the temporary suspension of the GST/HST. Starting in April, CPI inflation will be pulled down for one year by the removal of the consumer carbon tax. Lower global oil prices will also dampen inflation in the near term. However, we expect tariffs and supply chain disruptions to push up some prices. How much upward pressure this puts on inflation will depend on the evolution of tariffs and how quickly businesses pass on higher costs to consumers. Short-term inflation expectations have moved up, as businesses and consumers anticipate higher costs from trade conflict and supply disruptions. Longer term inflation expectations are little changed.

Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs. Our focus will be on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. This means we will support economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well controlled.

Governing Council will proceed carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy. These include: the extent to which higher tariffs reduce demand for Canadian exports; how much this spills over into business investment, employment and household spending; how much and how quickly cost increases are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve.

Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war. What it can and must do is maintain price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is June 4, 2025. The Bank will publish its next MPR on July 30, 2025.

Keeping up with rising living costs can be particularly challenging when you’re on a fixed income with limited cash flow. Many Canadians are taking out loans, using multiple credit cards, and delaying significant purchases to stay financially stable in retirement. However, juggling debts from different sources with varying interest rates and payment schedules can be stressful, leading Canadians to turn to debt consolidation loans to manage their finances and reduce stress.

What is debt consolidation?

Debt consolidation involves paying off debts using a single, lower interest loan. This approach significantly reduces the interest you pay and it offers the convenience of handling just one monthly bill instead of several.

Is Debt Consolidation Right for Me?

Many Canadians consider debt consolidation for various reasons, including:

• Catching up on bill payments: Debt consolidation loans can help you pay off multiple overdue bills, such as mortgage payments, income tax, phone, internet, heating, and hydro bills, providing you with financial control and stability.
• Paying off Private Loans: Many retired Canadians rely on private high interest loans to make it through the month or handle unexpected expenses. However, these loans still require monthly payments and can lead to growing debt. Debt consolidation loans can pay off these high-interest loans, breaking the cycle of debt, and in turn, can free up more monthly income.
• Paying off Credit Card debt: High-interest credit card debt can be stressful. Debt consolidation loans can clear the outstanding balance on your credit cards and instead consolidate it into one much lower interest rate loan, making paying off what you owe easier.

The CHIP Reverse Mortgage: An Effective Debt Consolidation Solution

The CHIP Reverse Mortgage is a loan secured against the appraised value of your home. It is designed exclusively for Canadian homeowners aged 55 years and better and can be an effective debt consolidation solution for several reasons, such as:

• Increase Cashflow: Access up to 55% of your home’s equity in tax-free cash, while staying in the home you love.
• No Required Interest Payments: No monthly interest payments required until you move or sell.
• Easy Qualification: No income, credit score, or health status requirements. Available to Canadian homeowners aged 55 or older.
• Preservation of Retirement Funds: Does not affect eligibility for government benefits such as CPP, OAS or other income sources.
• Protection from Market Fluctuations: TheNo Negative Equity Guarantee* from HomeEquity Bank, ensures you are protected even if your home’s value decreases.

Consolidate your high-interest debts, stay in your home, and enjoy tax-free cash to finance a more fulfilling retirement. To learn more about how the CHIP Reverse Mortgage can serve as a powerful and flexible tool for consolidating debt, contact your Dominion Lending Centres mortgage expert.

*As long as clients keep their property in good maintenance, pay their property taxes and property insurance and their property is not in default. The guarantee excludes administrative expenses and interest that has accumulated after the due date.

Summer is the time to get outside and enjoy your yard. To help you make the most of your space, I have broken down some of the top yard appeal ideas with the biggest ROI giving you the most bang for your buck and increasing your home’s equity and curb appeal at the same time!

• Embrace Sustainable Landscaping: Incorporating native plants, drought-resistant foliage, and xeriscaping techniques not only reduces water consumption but also creates an eco-friendly landscape. Consider installing a rain garden or a drip irrigation system to conserve water and enhance the natural beauty of your yard.
• Install Outdoor Structures: Adding functional outdoor structures like pergolas, arbors, or gazebos can provide shade, define spaces, and add architectural interest to your yard. These structures can serve as focal points and create inviting outdoor living areas for entertaining or relaxation.
• Upgrade Your Lawn: A lush, well-maintained lawn instantly elevates the appearance of your yard. Invest in professional lawn care services, aerate and overseed to fill in bare patches, and regularly fertilize and water your lawn to keep it healthy and green. Consider alternatives like artificial turf for low-maintenance options.
• Incorporate Water Features: Incorporating a water feature such as a fountain, pond, or waterfall adds visual interest, tranquility, and a sense of luxury to your yard. The soothing sound of running water can create a serene ambiance and attract wildlife, enhancing the overall appeal of your outdoor space.
• Enhance Privacy: Increase the comfort and enjoyment of your yard by enhancing privacy with strategic landscaping, fencing, or screening options. Planting tall hedges, installing lattice panels, or adding trellises with climbing plants can create secluded areas and block unsightly views while adding beauty and greenery to your yard.

By implementing these additional ideas alongside the ones you’ve already outlined, you can transform your yard into a welcoming oasis that not only enhances your enjoyment but also offers a significant return on investment.

BoC Holds Rates Steady Waiting To See Further Declines In Core Inflation.

the bank of canada holds rates steady until core inflation falls further

Today, the Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 5% for the fifth consecutive meeting and pledged to continue normalizing the Bank’s balance sheet. Policymakers remain concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation. The latest data show that CPI inflation fell to 2.9% in January, but year-over-year and three-month measures of core inflation were in the 3% to 3.5% range. The Governing Council projects that inflation will remain around 3% over the first half of this year but also suggests that wage pressure may be diminishing. The likelihood is that inflation will slow more rapidly, allowing for a rate cut by mid-year. 

The Bank also noted that Q4 GDP growth came in stronger than expected at 1.0% but was well below potential growth, confirming excess supply in the economy.

Employment continues to rise more slowly than population growth. During the press conference, Governor Macklem said it was too early to consider lowering rates as more time is needed to ensure inflation falls towards the 2% target.

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada expects that progress on inflation will be ‘gradual and uneven.’ “Today’s decision reflects the governing council’s assessment that a policy rate of 5% remains appropriate. It’s still too early to consider lowering the policy interest rate,” Macklem said in the prepared text of his opening statement. The Bank is pushing back on the idea that rate cuts are imminent.

High interest rates are dampening discretionary spending for households renewing mortgages at much higher monthly payments. As the economy slows in the first half of this year, the BoC will signal a shift towards easing. This could happen at the next meeting on April 10, when policymakers update their economic projections. This could prepare markets for a June rate cut.

“We don’t want to keep monetary policy this restrictive longer than we have to,” Macklem said. “But nor do we want to jeopardize the progress we’ve made in bringing down inflation.”

Nail Down Your Budget
Understanding the basics of budgeting and tracking your income versus spending is a fundamental part of financial literacy and control. Building a budget can help you define your spending habits, and determine where there is room for adjustments, and this gives you a chance to review your cash flow situation to ensure it aligns with your financial goals.

Ideally, your budget will fall close to the range of the following:

• 32% of your income for housing, including property taxes, maintenance, utilities, etc.
• 26% of your income for life, including groceries, medical, childcare, vacations, fun, etc.
• 16% of your income for transit, including car payments, bus passes, gas, etc.
• 16% of your income for debt, including credit cards, lines of credit, loans, etc.
• 10% of your income for savings, including long-term planning, retirement, etc.

DOWNLOAD OUR FIRST HOME BUDGET TEMPLATE!

Dedicate Your Savings

Many individuals will have a savings account that is connected to their chequing account. This can be a bad habit, as it becomes too easy to use your savings account as a second account versus as a dedicated account for emergencies, vacation planning, or more. Ideally, you are putting 10% of your monthly income into savings whenever possible.

Live Within Your Means

This one seems simple, but it is surprisingly difficult to do – especially if you don’t have a proper budget! By putting together a budget as mentioned above, you can see where you are spending your income and how it compares to what you are bringing in. Ideally, you are adjusting your spending to ensure that you are not going over the cash flow available to you with priority expenses first, followed by leisure.

Understand Your Banking Options and Interest Rates

Having a loan with a 16% interest rate, a credit card that you’re barely making payments on, or a savings account that doesn’t give much back are all areas for consideration when it comes to truly understanding your options. Sometimes a different bank, account type, or loan type can make a big difference to your financial position. There are plenty of options, especially at mortgage renewal time, for consolidating your debt, changing your mortgage, getting a better interest rate, and more!

LEARN MORE ABOUT CONSOLIDATING DEBT!

TIPS TO PAY OFF YOUR MORTGAGE FASTER!

Check Your Credit

An annual review of your credit score and credit report is a huge part of financial literacy as this plays a key role in your overall financial status. Your credit score affects your loans, credit cards, mortgages and the interest rate you can qualify for so be sure to understand where you fall on the scale.

GET HELP UNDERSTANDING YOUR CREDIT SCORE!

Plan for Big Expenses

Are you looking to replace your car? Planning a family vacation? Need to renovate your kitchen or replace some furniture? These are all typically larger expenses that should be planned for in advance. While sometimes an appliance will break and need to be replaced, the goal is to have funds in your budget (or savings) for when things come up unexpectedly but also to plan out spending before large purchases or bookings. This ensures that when you get on that plane or drive off that car lot, you know you’re already paid!

Review Your Financial Progress

A lot of people set up a budget but then they don’t update it! Ideally, if any of your expenses change, such as an increase to your streaming services bill or utilities go up, you are updating your budget in real-time to ensure that you are keenly aware of what is coming into your account and going out. Generally, an annual review is a good idea for an overall clean-up of your budget but keeping it maintained all year long will help you get the best picture of your financial situation.

Stay Informed

When it comes to financial literacy, knowledge is power. With so many resources by your side from your mortgage broker to our Enriched Tips, Economic Insights and more it is easy to keep your finger on the pulse and be mindful of current economic changes, as well as new products or opportunities such as 40-year amortization mortgages!

Whether you’re new to financial literacy and budgeting, or simply want a refresh, taking control of your finances and better understanding your spending, cash flow and options will help you get the most out of your income!

Your payment schedule is the frequency that you make mortgage payments and ranges from monthly to bi-monthly, bi-weekly, accelerated bi-weekly or even weekly payments. Below is a quick overview of what each of these payment frequencies mean:

Monthly Payments: A monthly payment is simply a single large payment, paid once per month; this is the default that sets your amortization. A 25-year mortgage, paid monthly, will take 25 years to pay off but includes the added burden of one larger payment coming from one employment pay period. With this payment frequency, you make 12 payments per year.

Example: $750k mortgage, 3-year fixed rate, 5.34%, 30-year amortization you would have a monthly payment of $4,156.19. No term savings; no amortization savings.

Bi-Weekly Payments: A bi-weekly mortgage payment is a total of 26 payments per year, calculated by multiplying your monthly mortgage payment by 12 months and divided by the 26 pay periods.

Example: $750k mortgage, 3-year fixed rate, 5.34%, 30-year amortization you would have a bi-weekly payment of $1,915.98 with term savings of $177 and total amortization savings of $1,769.

Accelerated Bi-Weekly Payments: An accelerated bi-weekly mortgage payment is also 26 payments per year, but the payment amount is higher than a regular bi-weekly payment frequency. Opting for an accelerated bi-weekly payment will not only pay your mortgage off quicker, but it’s guaranteed to save you a significant amount of money over the term of your mortgage. This frequency also allows the mortgage payment to be split up into smaller payments vs a single, larger payment per month. This is especially ideal for households who get paid every two weeks as the reduction in cash flow is more on track with incoming income.

Example: $750k mortgage, 3-year fixed rate, 5.34%, 30-year amortization you would have accelerated bi-weekly payments of $2,078.10 with term savings of $1,217 and total amortization savings of $145,184. Plus, you would save 4 years, 12 months of payments by reducing scheduled amortization.

Weekly Payments: Similar to monthly payments, your weekly mortgage payment frequency is calculated by multiplying your monthly mortgage payment by 12 months and dividing by 52 weeks in a year. In this case, you would make 52 payments a year on your mortgage.

Example: $750k mortgage, 3-year fixed rate, 5.34%, 30-year amortization you would have weekly payments of $957.50 with term savings of $253 and total amortization savings of $2,526. You can move to accelerated weekly payments to save even more!

Prepayment Privileges: In addition to fine-tuning your payment schedule, most mortgage products include prepayment privileges that enable you to pay up to 20% of the principal (the true value of your mortgage minus the interest payments) per calendar year. This can help reduce your amortization period (the length of your mortgage).

By exercising your prepayment privileges, you can take time off your mortgage. For instance:

• Extra $50 bi-weekly is $32,883 total savings and an additional 1 year, 2 months time saved
• Extra $100 bi-weekly is $62,100 in total savings and an additional 2 years, 3 months time saved on your mortgage
• Extra $200 bi-weekly is $111,850 in total savings and an additional 4 years, 1 month of time saved on your mortgage.

Understanding the different payment frequencies can be key in managing your monthly cash flow. If you’re struggling to meet a large payment, breaking it up can be effective; while the same can be true of the opposite. Individuals struggling to make a weekly or bi-weekly payment, may benefit from one monthly sum where they have time to collect the funds.

holy smokes, the bank of canada means business

If there were any doubt that the Bank of Canada wanted inflation to fall to 2%, it would be obliterated today. In a relatively surprising move, the Bank hiked the overnight policy rate by 25 bps to 4.75%, and an equivalent hike will follow in the prime rate. Fixed mortgage rates had already leaped higher even before today’s move as market-determined bond yields have risen in the wake of the US debt-ceiling debacle. Now variable mortgage rates will increase as well. The central bank is determined to eliminate the excess demand in the economy.

“Monetary policy was not sufficiently restrictive to bring supply and demand into balance and return inflation sustainably to the 2% target,” the bank said, citing an “accumulation of evidence” that includes stronger-than-expected first-quarter output growth, an uptick in inflation and a rebound in housing-market activity.

I had thought that the Bank would want to see the May employment data and the next read on inflation before they resumed tightening, but with the substantial May numbers in the housing market, the Governing Council jumped the gun.

The Reserve Bank of Australia did the same thing earlier this week. But their economy was already softening. On the other hand, the Canadian economy grew by a whopping 3.1% in the first quarter and is likely to surprise on the upside in Q2, boosted by a strong rebound in housing. If the correction in housing is over, then the Bank has failed to cool the most interest-sensitive sector in the economy. Governing Council fears that inflation could get stuck at levels meaningfully above the 2% target.

Bottom Line

The next Bank of Canada decision date is a mere five weeks away. While we will see two labour force surveys and one inflation report, the odds favour another rate hike before yearend. The BoC concluded in their press release that, “Overall, excess demand in the economy looks to be more persistent than anticipated.”

No doubt, if the data remain strong over the next several weeks, another 25 bps rate hike is likely in July. Deputy Governor Beaudry will flesh out today’s decision in his Economic Progress Report tomorrow.

As expected, the central bank held the overnight rate at 4.5%, ending, for now, the eight consecutive rate increases over the past year. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening. This is the first pause among major central banks.

Economic growth ground to a halt in the fourth quarter of 2022, lower than the Bank projected. “With consumption, government spending and net exports all increasing, the weaker-than-expected GDP was largely because of a sizeable slowdown in inventory investment.” The surge in interest rates has markedly slowed housing activity. “Restrictive monetary policy continues to weigh on household spending, and business investment has weakened alongside slowing domestic and foreign demand.”

In contrast, the labour market remains very tight. “Employment growth has been surprisingly strong, the unemployment rate remains near historic lows, and job vacancies are elevated.” Wages continue to grow at 4%-to-5%, while productivity has declined.

“Inflation eased to 5.9% in January, reflecting lower price increases for energy, durable goods and some services. Price increases for food and shelter remain high, causing continued hardship for Canadians.” With weak economic growth for the next few quarters, the Bank of Canada expects pressure in product and labour markets to ease. The central bank believes this should moderate wage growth and increase competitive pressures, making it more difficult for businesses to pass on higher costs to consumers.

In sum, the statement suggests the Bank of Canada sees the economy evolving as expected in its January forecasts. “Overall, the latest data remains in line with the Bank’s expectation that CPI inflation will come down to around 3% in the middle of this year,” policymakers said.

However, year-over-year measures of core inflation ticked down to about 5%, and 3-month measures are around 3½%. Both will need to come down further, as will short-term inflation expectations, to return inflation to the 2% target.

Today’s press release says, “Governing Council will continue to assess economic developments and the impact of past interest rate increases and is prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.”

Most economists believe the Bank of Canada will hold the overnight rate at 4.5% for the remainder of this year and begin cutting interest rates in 2024. A few even think that rate cuts will begin late this year.

In Congressional testimony yesterday and today, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed might need to hike interest rates to higher levels and leave them there longer than the market expects. Today’s news of the Bank of Canada pause triggered a further dip in the Canadian dollar (see charts below).

Fed officials next meet on March 21-22, when they will update quarterly economic forecasts. In December, they saw rates peaking around 5.1% this year. Investors upped their bets that the Fed could raise interest rates by 50 basis points when it gathers later this month instead of continuing the quarter-point pace from the previous meeting. They also saw the Fed taking rates higher, projecting that the Fed’s policy benchmark will peak at around 5.6% this year.

Bottom Line

The widening divergence between the Bank of Canada and the Fed will trigger further declines in the Canadian dollar. This, in and of itself, raises the Canadian prices of commodities and imports from the US. This ups the ante for the Bank of Canada.

The Bank is scheduled to make its next announcement on the policy rate on April 12, just days before OSFI announces its next move to tighten mortgage-related regulations on federally supervised financial institutions.

To be sure, the Canadian economy is more interest-rate sensitive than the US. Nevertheless, as Powell said, “Inflation is coming down, but it’s very high. Some part of the high inflation that we are experiencing is very likely related to a very tight labour market.”

If that is true for the US, it is likely true for Canada. I do not expect any rate cuts in Canada this year, and the jury is still out on whether the peak policy rate this cycle will be 4.5%.

Please Note: The source of this article is from SherryCooper.com/category/articles/

When it comes to saving money, there are a lot of little things you can do that add up to make a big difference! Here are 10 of our favourite money-saving tips:

Automatic savings are one of the most effective ways to save because you can’t spend what you can’t access! Instruct your employer to transfer a certain amount from your paycheck each pay period into an RRSP or savings account (or both) or set up automatic transfers in your banking account to coincide with your payday.
Consolidating debt will result in a single monthly payment and lower interest costs! Many people don’t realize just how much money they are wasting on interest each month, especially if you have multiple loans or credit cards. Consolidating debt can help you gain control and maximize spend on the principal amounts to pay off loans faster.
Budget with cash ifyou have trouble with overspending or find it too easy to use your card. After your bills are paid, take out the remaining cash (spending money) and only use that. Once the cash is gone, you’re out of money until next payday! Having physical cash in hand can also help you think twice when making purchases.
Buying in bulk is a great way to save a bit here and a bit there when doing your regular grocery shop or purchasing other items. Know you’ll need more? Stock up at once for bulk savings, which will help you in the long run!
Before Buying there are two things you should always do. The first is to wait at least 24 hours and the second is to shop around! If you still want to buy something the next day, make sure you get the best price available!
Plan Your Meals.Most of us don’t have time to make breakfast (let alone lunch!) before we fly out the door for work. But what if I told you that getting up an hour earlier could save you over $100 a week!? Just think about how much you spend going out for breakfast AND lunch each day? Groceries are a lot cheaper and you can even prep a few days worth of meals on Sunday while you get ready for the week.
Think in Hours versus Dollars every time you are looking to make a purchase, especially large ones to help you understand the TIME value of money. A new $24 Blu-Ray = 1 hour of work. A brand-new mattress = 41.67 hours of work. Understanding the time that went into earning money for a purchase can help with reconsidering frivolous items, or encourage you to look for the best deal on necessary products.
Utility Savings can help you save each month! Don’t blast your A/C with all the doors in your house open, don’t pump the heat without sealing cracks and consider things like installing water-saving toilets and running cold-water wash cycles to save energy (and money!) every day.
Master DIY – While sometimes you can spend $120 to make a $20 item yourself, there are some things that do benefit from DIY, such installing dimmer switches, that can help save you money in the long run.
Save Windfalls and Tax Refunds for a rainy day. A good rule of thumb is to put 50% of bonuses, tax refunds or other windfalls into your savings account and put the rest against loans owing. While you might want to go on a shopping spree or plan a vacation, paying off your debt NOW will free you up in the future.